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At 7:25 a.m.Saturday, amidst overcast skies, and frigid temperatures hovering around 8 degrees, Groundhog Phil failed to see his shadow in the small town of Punxsutawney, Pa.

According to folklore, no shadow for Phil means “there will be an early spring.” Had Phil seen his shadow, it would have meant six more weeks of winter.

Since the Groundhog’s first prediction in 1887 (through 2012), Phil has seen his shadow 100 times and not seen it on just 16 occasions. There are nine missing years in the record, but Phil has issued a forecast without exception.

His unimpeachable reliability notwithstanding, Phil’s accuracy is the subject of debate.

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